[SMM Hot Topic] The Impact of Anti-Dumping on Chinese Steel and Real-Time Situation Tracking

Published: Feb 28, 2025 19:13

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Generally, anti-dumping investigations take six months to one and a half years from initiation to final ruling. We estimate its potential impact based on a one-year period. Using the total export volume of various products to different countries in 2024 as the baseline, the impact is specifically calculated under the assumptions of a 25% and 50% MoM decline. Among these cases, 41 have reached the final ruling stage, with the impact expected to continue into 2025, while 32 are at the initiation stage, with the impact likely to gradually emerge in 2025. If only considering cases at the original initiation stage, the impact on steel exports would be 3.0792 million mt and 6.1585 million mt, respectively, under the 25% and 50% decline scenarios. When considering cases at the initiation, preliminary ruling, and final ruling stages, the impact on steel exports would be 4.2055 million mt and 8.4111 million mt, respectively. Vietnam's anti-dumping case against Chinese HRC concluded its preliminary ruling on February 21, 2025, with provisional anti-dumping duties of 19.38% to 27.83% applied to the investigated Chinese products. The effective date is March 7, 2025, as announced. For specific impacts, please refer to the SMM article: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9kX1YJ0QbZmbYql71NnDtQ. As Vietnam has already imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese HRC, the annual impact on steel exports is estimated to be between 5.1146-6.9726 million mt.

As China's steel exports hit new highs year by year, the country's steel industry has faced increasingly intense anti-dumping investigations. According to the China Trade Remedy Information Network, there were 94 ongoing anti-dumping cases in 2024, primarily concentrated in the US, Australia, the EU, Brazil, Turkey, Thailand, Mexico, Vietnam, South Africa, and Canada. Among these, 32 cases were in the initial filing stage, and 41 cases were in the final ruling stage. The following analysis will examine the impact of anti-dumping cases at different stages.

2024 Anti-Dumping Case Overview
In 2024, there were 94 anti-dumping cases targeting China's steel products, mainly concentrated in the US, Australia, the EU, Brazil, Turkey, Thailand, Mexico, Vietnam, South Africa, and Canada. Among the top 10 regions initiating cases, 4 overlapped with the top 10 destinations for China's steel exports. Most of the cases involved sheets & plates.

Chart-1: Details of 2024 Anti-Dumping Cases in the Steel Industry

Source: China Trade Remedy Information Network, SMM. Due to space limitations, not all details are displayed. For further information, please contact SMM.

Chart-2: Details of 2024 Final Rulings on Anti-Dumping Cases in the Steel Industry

Source: China Trade Remedy Information Network, SMM

Chart-3: Details of 2024 Initial Filings of Anti-Dumping Cases in the Steel Industry

Source: China Trade Remedy Information Network, SMM
2024 Anti-Dumping Cases by Country and Product

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported a total of 110.716 million mt of steel from January to December 2024, up 22.7% YoY. China's steel exports continued to grow in 2024, reaching the highest level in nearly a decade.

Chart-1: Monthly Steel Export Trends in China Over the Past 5 Years

Source: General Administration of Customs of China

In 2024, 22 countries initiated anti-dumping cases against China's steel products, as shown in the chart below:

Chart-2: Countries Initiating Anti-Dumping Cases Against China's Steel Products in 2024

Source: China Trade Remedy Information Network, SMM

In 2024, China's steel products faced 94 anti-dumping investigations, an increase of 7 cases compared to 2023. As of February 21, 2025, China faced 16 new anti-dumping cases on steel products. Regionally, the US and Europe initiated the most cases against China's steel products, but these cases were more focused on specific steel products rather than China's main steel export categories. According to 2024 data from the General Administration of Customs, China's steel exports to the US and Europe accounted for only 4.39%, with a relatively small overall impact. In 2024, Southeast Asia accounted for over 24% of China's total steel exports and, as a major destination for China's steel exports, initiated 17 anti-dumping investigations against China's steel products.

Chart-3: Number of Anti-Dumping Cases Against China's Steel Products in 2024

Source: China Trade Remedy Information Network, SMM

According to 2024 export data from China's customs, among the categories involved in anti-dumping cases, HRC exports to Vietnam accounted for approximately 48.4%, representing the largest impact. This was followed by HRC exports to Thailand (10.25%) and galvanized sheet exports to Brazil (3.83%).

Chart-4: Cumulative Export Values by Country and Product in 2024 Anti-Dumping Cases

Source: General Administration of Customs of China, SMM

Impact Assessment of 2024 Anti-Dumping CasesGenerally, anti-dumping investigations take six months to one and a half years from filing to final ruling. Based on a one-year timeline, the potential impact was calculated. Using the total export volume of each product to each country in 2024 as the baseline, the impact was estimated under scenarios of a 25% and 50% decline.

Among the 41 cases in the final ruling stage, the impact will extend into 2025, while the 32 cases in the initial filing stage may gradually show their impact in 2025. If only considering cases in the initial filing stage, the impact on steel exports would be 3.0792 million mt and 6.1585 million mt under 25% and 50% decline scenarios, respectively. Including cases in the filing, preliminary ruling, and final ruling stages, the impact on steel exports would be 4.2055 million mt and 8.4111 million mt, respectively.

Vietnam's anti-dumping case on Chinese HRC concluded its preliminary ruling on February 21, 2025, with provisional anti-dumping duties of 19.38% to 27.83% on the investigated Chinese products. The duties will take effect on March 7, 2025. For specific impacts, please refer to the SMM article https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9kX1YJ0QbZmbYql71NnDtQ. Due to the imposition of anti-dumping duties by Vietnam on Chinese HRC, the annual impact on steel exports is estimated to be between 5.1146 million mt and 6.9726 million mt.

Chart-4: Details of 2025 Anti-Dumping Cases in the Steel Industry

Source: China Trade Remedy Information Network, SMM

SMM is closely monitoring the progress and impact of overseas anti-dumping investigations on steel. For more information, please follow SMM's official account.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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